Photo by mohamed_hassan from PxHere
Published on July 28, 2025
As the global economy attempts to stabilize after years of Amid post-pandemic turbulence, the trade war between the United States and China is entering a critical new phase. The imposition of new tariffs, multiple bilateral negotiations, and the involvement of numerous partner countries are drawing a new map of international trade.
A trade confrontation dominated by major powers
The current trade war is primarily between the United States and China, but its repercussions extend far beyond these two giants. Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has put an aggressive economic policy back on the agenda, specifically targeting trade imbalances. The US administration has thus relaunched the imposition of high tariffs on Chinese products, some reaching as high as 145%.
Beijing has responded with its own taxes, reaching as high as 125% on certain US imports. At the heart of this standoff are major strategic issues, particularly in the areas of technology and national security. China, rapidly growing in technological power, represents a perceived threat to Washington in sectors such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
Global Negotiations
Despite the tension, talks remain open. On July 28, a new round of trade talks began in Stockholm between US and Chinese envoys. Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, and He Lifeng, Chinese Vice Premier, are leading the discussions in the hope of avoiding an escalation of sanctions. These negotiations are taking place within a tight schedule: the current tariff truce will end on August 12.
At the same time, the United States is conducting other negotiations with its international partners. The European Union concluded a historic customs agreement on July 27, providing for reduced tariffs to 15% between the two blocs. Similar agreements are currently being discussed with Japan, Canada, Mexico, and several Asian countries.
The Global Impact of an Economic War
The consequences of this economic conflict are already visible. Many multinationals are reorganizing their production lines to avoid surcharges. Major American technology companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and IBM are reducing their presence in China, seeking alternatives in Southeast Asia.
In the region, countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand are becoming export hubs for Chinese products, in a phenomenon called transshipment. This strategy allows Beijing to limit the effects of sanctions while maintaining its market share in the American market.
The underlying motivations of a complex confrontation
The White House's official objective is to rebalance trade, particularly with China, whose trade surplus with the United States reached $295.5 billion in 2024. But beyond simple trade, this war is rooted in a logic of strategic rivalry.
The United States wants to slow China's technological rise, protect its domestic industries, and put pressure on Beijing on other sensitive issues such as the fight against fentanyl or trade relations with countries under sanctions like Russia and Iran.
Growing Pressure on Consumers
Experts predict a gradual increase in consumer prices in the United States in the second half of 2025. By the end of 2026, tariff-related inflation could reach 2%, affecting all American households. Food, electronics, and clothing: few sectors will be spared.
Despite promises of long-term benefits, trade tensions are creating uncertainty that weighs on investment, growth, and global stability. The outcome of the upcoming negotiations, scheduled for the coming months, could have a lasting impact on the international economic landscape.
Geopolitical Issues as a Backdrop
A meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is being planned for November 2025. It could represent a turning point in this complex standoff. But the deep differences between Washington and Beijing suggest that the path to lasting peace will be fraught with pitfalls.
Between technological rivalry, economic pressures, circumvention strategies, and diplomatic tensions, the 2025 trade war promises to be a major test for the balance of global trade.
Sources : Boursorama, AP News, The Economic Times, CBS News, Time Magazine, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg YouTube.
0 Comments